I don't think everyone is immediately going to switch to Blu-Ray. First of all, not everyone has a high definition TV and secondly not everyone can afford $20 for a DVD.
No HDTV for me unless my analog TV goes out. That might be a while, as it's a nice Panasonic unit with very little use. So we might upgrade in five or ten years.
$20 for a DVD? Nope. I'd buy them used.
The bigger switch going on in technology will be the end of analog TV and the transition to digital television. I'm still waiting for my converter box.
We have ours already--Comcast was sending them out for 'free' last year to get people to switch. It's all right--On Demand is cool for the kids, and sometimes we'll see a free movie, occasionally rent one.
When is that analog-to-digital transition supposed to happen? It's been pushed forward a few times.